New versions of AN-124 freighters will add capacity to a growing outsize air cargo market
By Roger Turney
The AN-124-100 freighter remains a species of comparative rarity, much discussed but seldom seen. That is all about to change with the start of an intensive production program that could see more than 60 new versions of the aircraft built. Far from living out its dog days as an ex-Soviet military air-lifter, the faithful AN-124 is to be rejuvenated, reborn and re-launched as a modern commercial freighter.
A joint Russian and Ukrainian initiative will see a modernized version of the hulking aircraft enter into serial production at the Aviastar aircraft manufacturing plant in Ulyanovsk, Russia. The key co-leaders in the project will be the aircraft's Ukrainian originator, Antonov Design Bureau, and Russian cargo power Volga-Dnepr.
In the initial stages, an upgraded version, the AN-124-100M-150, will be produced in Ulyanovsk, with the first aircraft to be rolled out in 2008. Serial production will commence in 2010, although with only three aircraft expected to be produced each year, it will hardly be conveyor belt stuff.
But according to Gennady Pivovarov, director operations for Volga-Dnepr Airlines, an investment of $407 million in the Ulyanovsk production line is expected to generate aircraft sales on the order of $6 billion. The new versions are to be built over the next two decades at a list price of around $100 million to $110 million apiece.
"We as a specialist operator of this type of aircraft need this level production and the market in general needs this level of production if we are to meet expected demand," says Pivovarov. "The market for outsize and heavyweight cargo has grown some 28 percent a year for each of the last four years and growth is forecast to continue at a rate of at least 15 to 20 percent between now and 2010."
Market Share
Volga-Dnepr controls a 54 percent share of the global outsize market, operating a fleet of 10 AN-124-100 aircraft. It took delivery last year of its tenth, a new-build providing a 30 percent increase in payload that takes the aircraft's lift capability up to 150 tonnes.
A separate business project signed between the Russian and Ukrainian governments has been put in place to upgrade the rest of the Volga-Dnepr AN-124 fleet to a 150 tonne capability over the next five years. The new AN-124-100M-150, as the aircraft's moniker suggests, also feature a 150-tonne payload offering.
But with this sudden avalanche of new build capacity coming on stream, will Volga-Dnepr not effectively be killing its own goose by increasing availability, lowering rates and even encouraging new outsized operators? "It will not work like that," says Pivovarov. "We believe the existing outsize operators, including ourselves, will quickly swallow-up this new capacity as it comes on stream.
"We are also confident that the huge barriers to entry to this specialized market will preclude any newcomers."
He confirms Volga-Dnepr will be in line to order at least five of the new AN-124s, with options for five more. Fellow outsize operator Polet Cargo Airlines has indicated it would place orders for three of the new AN-124 aircraft. As well as breathing a new life into the AN-124, Pivovarov also expects to breathe new commercial potential into the aircraft. "We are discussing the potential of building a fire-engine version of the aircraft and NATO wants us to look at the possibility of producing a field-hospital version of the aircraft," he says.
Pivovarov also notes the original fleet of AN-124s will soon begin to reach retirement age and will need to be progressively replaced. "The existing AN-124 fleet has been designed with a lifespan of about 24,000 flying hours, which at an average rate of 1,200 to 2,000 hours a year, will soon be reached for many of these aircraft," he says.
The project to re-launch the AN-124 into serial production may be based on sound commercial judgement, but some question the long-term political efficacy of a joint Russian-Ukrainian venture. After all, the two states are not exactly on the best of terms. But Pivovarov dismisses such talk. "Let me confirm to you that this project has been sanctioned at the highest levels and has got the personal backing and assurances of both the presidents of Russia and Ukraine," he says.
In fact, such is the confidence of project backers that even before the AN-124-100M-150 has flown its first air mile plans have already been initiated for a next generation.
The follow-up AN-124-300 is set to be rolled out in 2018, with serial production slated to begin in 2020 at a rate of three aircraft a year. This ultimate version of the aircraft, it is envisioned, will for the first time feature an aircraft fully-loaded with Western engines and avionics, although it is likely the payload will not reach much above the current 150 tonnes.
http://www.aircargoworld.com/regions/euro_0106.htm
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